Cavendish Political Analysis - Conservative 2017 Intake

  • Joseph Meaden

The upcoming General Election, if polls are even reasonably accurate, will deliver a resounding Conservative victory. The Conservative benches could be set to expand by 70 or so MPs, representing an influx that will put Theresa May’s stamp on a Parliamentary Party forged under her predecessors.

Large majorities alter the dynamics of public affairs and the next Parliament will be markedly different to the past seven years. In this period, we have had the Coalition’s fault lines, and post-EU Referendum division between Conservative Leavers and Remainers, that could be exploited to further client aims.

A possible 100+ majority changes things and requires a deeper level of understanding and engagement with the Conservative Party, and knowledge of the workings of the civil service and machinery of Government, to secure influence.

To identify those candidates that will make up the expanded Parliamentary Party we have included most of the notional top 40 targets based on the percentage swing required identified by the respected UK Polling Report.

We have omitted however the odd seat where we think there is some doubt Labour’s grip can be prised free despite its marginal status – for example Tooting (notional target no. 24) isn’t on our list as the recent by-election showed a strong Labour performance, it has a high Remain vote and London is less likely to swing heavily in comparison to other regions.

In contrast, we do include Bolton North East (notional target no. 49) which had a high Leave vote and was the seat Theresa May chose to launch the Conservative campaign in. This is the lowest seat on the target list that we include.

The scale of the poll leads has led some to look at seats that have 5,000+ majorities as potential targets. For all of Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity this is still a steep challenge and for the purposes of this document candidates for these constituencies have not been included.

This guide is meant to provide a head start in understanding this intake, what is different from the Cameroon A-listers and who within it could make a swift rise through the ranks.

We hope you find this analysis informative and would be delighted to discuss in further detail how the new political environment might affect your corporate objectives.

You can read our full analysis document here: Cavendish Political Analysis - Conservative 2017 Intake.pdf

Joseph Meaden